"I did not want a warning." #WRN #skywarn

In the USA, for someone to say they did not get a warning is essentially to say "I did not want a warning."

Emergency Managers, for years, have encouraged the Citizen to be more  active in getting their warning information.  The days of the siren to wake us up in the middle of the night is over.  As one emergency manager pointed out:
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When I was MUCH younger, the windows were open in the spring, the black-and-white TV was not on all the time, folks did not listen to MP3 players with headphones, and sirens could be heard inside the house.

With the cell phone tied to every waistband, some jurisdictions are turning to products such as Everbridge, Nixle, BlackboardConnect, MyStateUSA, Code Red, and EmergencyE to encourage the public to get their warnings.  The National Weather Service offers this  “LISTING OF ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF WEATHER ALERTS”.

Popular smartphone operating systems such as the Android and Iphone offer applications such as Storm and WeatherBug that automatically alert when the resident is in a warning area as well as for areas where the Citizen has an interest.

The Weather Service has offered Interactive NWS for a few years now.  This service sends email and text messages to subscribers (who are members of the emergency management community).  This supplements the Weather Radio network that has been in place for a number of years.

Of course, amateur radio plays a big part in keeping the resident aware as do local media partners.  Even newspapers are joining the electronic media to give their own Twitter and Facebook information. 

You may get automated information from your Federal partners with the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) and the Wireless Emergency Alert system.

Indeed, today, there's no need to go without a warning.  However, you must WANT to get one.

WASHINGTON - As 2011 - one of the most active years for disasters in recent history - comes to a close and Americans get ready to ring in a new year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is encouraging all Americans to Resolve to be Ready in the by making a new year's resolution to be prepared for emergencies.

As a recent report by the National Climatic Data Center highlights, 2011 has seen more billion-dollar natural disasters than any year on record. This year alone, the U.S. experienced its first hurricane landfall since 2008, the most deadly series of tornadoes since the 1950s, significant earthquakes and severe flooding - hazards that impacted every region of the country. All of these events have served as important reminders that disasters can strike anytime, anywhere, and being prepared is one of the most effective things we can do to protect our homes, businesses and loved ones.

Today, FEMA kicked off its annual campaign, Resolve to be Ready in 2012, which urges Americans to make preparedness a priority during the holiday season by making a new year's resolution to be ready for disasters or by thinking about preparedness tools for last minute gift ideas.

"One of the most important lessons we can take away from this year is that disasters can impact all of us, no matter what part of the country we live in," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "While we can't control where or when they might hit, we can take steps in advance to prepare for them - efforts that can go a long way toward protecting our families, homes and business. Resolving to be Ready in 2012 could be the most important pledge you make this year."

By making a resolution to take a few simple steps in advance, Americans can minimize the impact of an emergency on their families, homes or businesses. To take the pledge, visit www.ready.gov/resolve or www.listo.gov, which includes free information, checklists, and guidelines about how to put together a kit, make a plan, and stay informed.

Resolve to be Ready in 2012 is a nationwide effort to increase awareness and encourage individuals, families, businesses, and communities to take action and prepare for emergencies in the New Year. This effort is led by FEMA's Ready Campaign in partnership with Citizen Corps and The Advertising Council. For more information, visit Ready.gov and CitizenCorps.gov or follow the campaign on Twitter using the hashtags #ready2012 and #resolve.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

###

On October 18, 2006, April Green, one of the characters in the TV series Jericho said "Our world has changed".


The viewing public was exposed, during that episode called "The Federal Response" to what would have the IPAWS look and feel.

During the show, every phone in the community of 5000 in western Kansas came to life with a message from the Under Secretary of Homeland Security.

The internet started working again.

The Emergency Alert System came on otherwise dark television sets.

It's unclear how the writers of Jericho came up with this idea but the inclusion in the show is forward-thinking.

The fans of the show were given some insight what the future might hold, should that disaster befall America.

Did you see this from the KWHW Sunrise Reporter?

"Bintz was very thankful ... Insurance will cover the accident ..."

FEMA and your tax dollars were not summoned to the accident, except for the first response from police and fire. The only Federal response was from the National Guard unit that just happened to be training in the area at the time.

Don't wait six months after the disaster to call your insurance agent. The first call should be to your insurance company. The advise is for owners and renters alike.

Check your policy. The two needed items after a disaster are shelter and debris removal. Homeowners policies may have provisions to cover both.  Renters' insurance often covers the cost of temporary shelter until one can return to their home.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners offers an explanation of the disaster claims process.

Plan, prepare, practice ... Go ahead and call your insurance company while you are thinking about this part of your plan.

Paying the Price: The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States (Natural Hazards and Disasters: Reducing Loss and ... in a Hazardous World: A Series)

Are you following the news in Japan?

It's been over a week since the earthquake and tsunami.

There's no rioting in the streets, no reports of looting, no outcries for the head of FEMA to resign.

Could this mean that the Japanese really ARE the second most prepared country in the world?  One writer suggest they are Number ONE in this arena.

Pay attention America. If this was happening here, would you do as well?

http://www.ready.gov ... make a plan, build a kit to support the plan, practice the plan.

Today, please.

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Japanese preparedness and response: Update and a few deniable hypotheses

via Homeland Security Watch by Philip J. Palin on 3/20/11

The image above displays different levels of March 11 quake intensity (circles) superimposed on population density. Red star is epicenter. Darkest blue is Tokyo region.  The large arc of an island extending across most of the picture is Honshu.  The island at the top is Hokkaido.  The northern third of Honshu is traditionally known as Tohoku (literally meaning northeast).  Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory.
As of Sunday evening in Japan:
Dead: 8133    Missing: 12, 272 (Kyodo)
Injured: 2611 (OCHA)
Evacuees in public shelters: 360,000 (Kyodo)
Buildings damaged or destroyed: 117,000 (USAID)
Without regular water service: 2.3 million people (COE)
Without electricity: 289,000 households (713,000 plus people) (OCHA)
Aftershocks: 290 and at least one separate 6.1 earthquake (USGS)
The situation at hospitals that have been without tap water, electricity and gas since the earthquake struck remains a concern. Many hospitals are trying to keep patients alive without water or electricity. Some hospitals have reported reducing the number of meals and procedures provided. They fear that lives saved from the earthquake will now be lost due to the shortages of doctors and medicine. There is also a shortage of medicines for people with chronic conditions in the evacuation shelters. Several reports of hypothermia, serious dehydration and respiratory diseases in the shelters. The focus is now on keeping the elderly alive and healthy. (OCHA)
The cold weather has eased slightly but the Japan Meteorological Agency warned that freezing temperatures will return in the Tohoku region on 20 March, and be followed by heavy rains on 21 March. Unseasonably cold weather is expected to continue beyond 22 March. The Agency has also issued a flood alert for the earthquake affected coastal regions during the spring tides from the 18 – 26 March and in particular for Minami-Sanrikucho, Miyagi where the ground has sunk 75cm.
Approximately 94 percent of main roads reaching affected coastal areas had been repaired as of March 19, with additional repairs ongoing in affected areas, according to the GoJ.  In addition, six previously damaged sea ports are now operational and the Sendai airport is open for a limited number of emergency and humanitarian flights. (USAID)   Two main highways are still reserved for emergency vehicles only. (COE)
The current GOJ guidance for securing emergency supplies: Evacuation centers will send requests to municipalities, and the prefecture will consolidate these requests  and liaise with the national government. Then, the national government will request relief items  and food from the private sector and other municipalities, which will be consolidated at SDF  sites and transported by the SDF to affected areas. (COE)  This system is not yet having wide-spread effectiveness.  According to Sunday's Washington Post, "Eight days after a 9.0 magnitude earthquake sent a merciless wall of water crashing onto Japan's northeastern coast, a city once noted for its jazz festival and expansive joie de vivre is reduced to foraging for basic necessities. The descent of a vibrant metropolis toward a state of simple survival has helped numb the population to a further agony. Many here are too preoccupied with day-to-day needs to focus on unseen dangers leaking from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant down the coast."
The GoJ has announced temporary power cuts across the nation, following the reduction in output or the closure of 11 of 50 nuclear generators located in affected areas. The government warned that rolling blackouts would begin March 14 and are expected to last until at least the end of April.  (COE)
The construction of temporary housing for the evacuees has started in Rikuzen-Takada City and Kamaichi City, in Iwate Prefecture. In Rikuzen-Takada, 36 structures are planned for the end of this month, and 200 in total afterwards, while about 100 structures are to be built in Kamaishi, Ofunato, Iwate and Sohma, and Fukushima. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, estimates 8,800 temporary houses are needed in Iwate, 10,000 in Miyagi and 14,000 in Fukushima for the short-term. The Government has requested a consortium of constructors to build at least 30,000 in two months. (OCHA)
According to Reuters, Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said that the economic damages from the disaster would exceed 20 trillion yen (US$248 billion). The 1995 Kobe earthquake caused some US$100 billion in damage and was the most expensive natural disaster in history. Citigroup estimated 5-10 trillion yen in damages to housing and infrastructure while Barclays Capital estimates economic losses of 15 trillion yen (US$183.7 billion). Goldman Sachs estimated total economic losses to be 16 trillion yen. (US$198 billion) (Reuters, March 19)USB expects Japan's economy to grow 1.4 percent this year, compared to a previous forecast of 1.5 percent and also upgraded its growth forecast for next year to 2.5 percent, up from a previous estimate of 2.1 percent. (Reuters)
Crisis Commons has established a data aggregation site focused on Japan. It is being constantly updated and expanded.  ReliefWeb continues to be a very rich source of background and situational awareness.

–+–

It has taken much longer than the oft-discussed 72 hours, but nine-to-ten days after the earthquake-and-tsunami a reasonably clear picture of the situation in Northeast Japan is beginning to emerge.  The clarity will increase with each passing day, as should our sense of the profound scope and scale.  This is how a rich, resilient, and well prepared society can still be knocked very hard.

It is, I think, premature to reach many risk readiness conclusions.  While the amount of information available is really amazing, differences of language and culture can obscure our understanding.  The vast amounts of information may even distract from our sense of meaning.

But it is not too soon to begin framing some questions.  Even as those on the ground are organizing themselves to serve the survivors, how can we organize observations to enhance our chance of future survival.  A few questions of particular personal interest:

Resupply of the affected areas has been slow.  What factors contributed most to the delay: Unavailability of supply? Damage to transportation infrastructure? Uncertainty about the status of transportation infrastructure? Reduced availability of fuel?  Uncertainty about availability of fuel? Weather complications? Unwillingness of truckers and other elements of the logistical system to enter the impact area?  Refusal of officials to allow truckers and others to enter?  Efforts to establish effective command-and-control?

My deniable hypothesis: All the above contributed, but I perceive the command-and-control mentality had (and is having) a particular impact.

While the total number of dead is likely to be close to or above 20,000, given the roughly 1.4 million in the earthquake-and-tsunami target zone, this is a considerably better outcome than might be expected.  What saved lives:  infrastructure, information, training?  Family reunification is a big question for US catastrophic preparedness, what is the Japanese policy/strategy in this regard?  What was the population's behavior in this regard?  Who died?  It seems to me there is evidence to suggest that the elderly died in disproportionate numbers.  Was this a matter of mobility?  Information?  Training?  Isolation?

My deniable hypothesis: The wider the individual's social web especially at the critical moment of threat, the more likely their survival.

At least from this distance, there has been a strange sort of slow-motion decision-making in regard to both the tsunami response and dealing with the nuclear emergency.  For example, I am neither a firefighter nor a nuclear specialist, but I was pushing use of Tokyo's high-rise firefighting equipment at Fukushima 48 hours before it happened.  Based on my experience in Japan I wonder about the influence of hierarchical cultural patterns.  To what extent were people waiting for orders? Waiting for instructions?  Using the Cynefin framework, how did participant-observers define their problem: was it complicated, complex, or chaotic?

Two deniable hypotheses: The situation after 2:46  Japan time on March 11 was "chaotic".   Most participants and decision-makers in Japan treated the situation as "complicated."  See Cynefin Framework for definition of terms.

My friend, Rick Boyne, asked the Question Are we too dependent on Walmart?

That's an important Question from the Emergency Management perspective but not for the reason he opines.

Americans have become attuned to Just In Time everything. When Walmart can't deliver goods for three days, what are YOU going to do for the three days you wait for Walmart trucks ... and I mean trucks ... to arrive?

You can't even GET to Walmart so is the only thing left to order it online and have it shipped?

If you can't go, there's no buying. If Walmart can't deliver, there's no buying.

Are You Ready will help you:

1. Make a plan
2. Build a kit to support the plan
3. Practice the plan
4. Help your neighbors

How about starting today?

Disaster Preparedness Kit

Today, I spent a few moments in the barber chair quizzing a 20-something on the anniversary of the worst ice storm in Oklahoma history.

The look on her face when I brought up the subject revealed that she did not have pleasant memories of the event.

What is she doing different? Not much except her ex-boyfriends gas stove is no longer available now.

Have any supplies? Have a weather radio? How about the City Alert system?

No ... no ... AND no.

Next week, help me remember to take an Are You Ready book by for her.

In the mean time, the Red Cross is planning shelter operations for the next winter storm to help residents just like her.

Coupled along with this note from the Vacation Lane Group, it was observed by the Old Farmer's Almanac that, on December 26, 1947, "NYC's deepest snowstorm commenced: 25.8" at battery, 32" in suburbs - traffic completely stopped - removal costed $8 million - 27 people died, 1947."

In other words, this week's is not the FIRST worst snowstorm in the Northeast. Neither will it be the last. This particular event predates the Federal Emergency Management Agency by over 30 years.  Please, no jokes about FEMA being established on April Fool's Day, 1979.

I am not calling for the elimination of FEMA or Homeland Security, but something was different in 1947.  There was no FEMA, no Red Cross debit cards, the City survived, and America continued.

What could it have been?

While I am not calling for the elimination of the Federal Emergency Management Agency or Homeland Security, it is noteworthy that, in public speaking, I have yet to have a listener raise their hand when I ask who would like to give ME a generator. However, rare is the disaster that occurs where there are more requests for FEMA reimbursement for individual generators.


It appears that FEMA is wise to continue the missive of preparedness. This message is NOT new. The "Are You Ready" books have been in print for several years now. They are a good supplement to the local emergency management program in the USA. It fits nicely with the 303 Plan described by our friends in Australia at http://www.the303plan.com/

It really is fitting that, in 1947, I suspect Neighbors Helped Neighbors. In the beginning of the Cold War era, the elderly and infirm were not overlooked. Perhaps, America should return to the pattern and practice of our forefathers.


After all, all disasters start locally and end locally, in 1947 or today. Are YOU Ready? http://www.ready.gov

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Is the New FEMA prepared for ICE STORMS and Energy Outages?

via The Vacation Lane Blog by The Vacation Lane Group on 12/20/10

There once was a time when snow and ice were not the subject of disaster declarations. In fact the Fire, flood, or explosion litany of the disaster legislation often seemed to not even include those hazards. Snowstorms have now been added.

The current definition reads:

"Major disaster" means any natural catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado,
storm, high water, winddriven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic
eruption, landslide, mudslide, snowstorm, or drought), or, regardless of cause, any
fire, flood, or explosion, in any part of the United States, which in the determination
of the President causes damage of sufficient severity and magnitude to warrant
major disaster assistance under this Act to supplement the efforts and available
resources of States, local governments, and disaster relief organizations in
alleviating the damage, loss, hardship, or suffering caused thereby."

Thus icestorms and energy outages are not specifically listed unless accompanied by one of the listed hazards or the specifically named ones--fire, flood or explosion. And of course radiological releases and terrorist attacks are also not specifically listed or generically listed.

Well it will be interesting to see exactly what FEMA and DHS do in the event of a prolonged icestorm or energy outage or even what their plans and capabilities are in fact. A large ice storm in KY last winter has resulted in an outpouring of disaster largess and surely this was partially the result of efforts by the long serving Congressman from KY Fifth Congressional District now chair of the House Appropriations Committee in the forthcoming 112th Congress.

Not relying on FEMA documentation of capability (there is little to rely upon) but open source materials on other agencies including the Department of Energy a mass and long term outage of power in a major metropolitan area--I would argue the top 500--would result in deaths and damages that would or should qualify this for major disaster status. Perhaps in the South and West, as both FRANCE and Russia have now experienced, heat wave deaths in unairconditioned shelter can be devastating to URBAN populations.

So suggesting that these situations be added to the planning scenarios and any statutory issues be addressed in the 112th Congress.

Winter now but yes with the winter solstice arriving summer now the solstice after next.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Years to all.

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• Subscribe to The Vacation Lane Blog using Google Reader
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The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently unveiled an exciting new tool to help the public get answers to questions about Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps (DFIRM).

Provided by the FEMA Map Information eXchange (FMIX), Live Chat allows FEMA stakeholders to interact with Map Specialists real-time via an online forum. Specialists can field inquiries about a wide variety of topics including the release of new flood maps, the urgent need for the purchase of flood insurance and much, much more.

Map Specialists are available for online chat Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. and again from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. CST. To use Live Chat or for information regarding services provided by the FMIX, visit www.floodmaps.fema.gov/fhm/fmx_main.html and click on "Live Chat." You can also contact the FMIX at 1-877-FEMA MAP (1-877-336-2627) or by email at FEMAMapSpecialist@riskmapcds.com.

While many homeowners are required by mortgage and lending companies to have flood insurance, FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) strongly recommend that everyone purchase flood insurance.
  
The NFIP offers federally-backed flood insurance at relatively nominal rates, as damage from flooding is not normally covered by homeowners' insurance. For more information on estimated rates for flood insurance, flood facts and to locate an agent in your area, you can also visit www.floodsmart.gov.

At a preparedness site, there has been some discussion about martial law.

Clearly, this may be a concern in some countries. In the USA, it's less of a concern.

In the book, The Military Commander and the Law 1998 references, in detail, the Posse Commitatus Act of 1978. This is a publication of the Air Force Judge Advocates General School.

The Act, an outcome of the American Civil War, prohibits the use of Military in the support of Civilian Law Enforcement.

- Prohibitions
The Armed Services are precluded from assisting local law enforcement officials from enforcing civilian laws, except where authorized by the Constitution or act of Congress.

--- Only the Army and Air Force are mentioned in the statute
--- The Navy follows Posse Comitatus by policy
--- The Act applies to the Reserves and to the National Guard while in Federal (Title 10) service but not to the Guard while in 'Title 32 (state) status.
--- The Act does apply to the Coast Guard
-- The act does not apply to off-duty conduct unless "induced, required, or ordered" by Military officials.

Emergency managers can tell you the guidelines it takes to get troops to engage, even in Civilian humanitarian efforts.

If you have concern about Civilian use of Military resources, please visit with your local emergency manager.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has come a long way from Hurricane Andrew. Part of that observation is triggered by the recent Twitter event with Chief Paulison and the conference call this weekend with ADM Johnson.

During the latter, my questions centered around two areas:

1) Employees
2) Public Affairs

When asked what qualities FEMA sought in hiring disaster assistance employees and green cards.

One important word that jumped out was Integrity.

Reference.com defines Integrity as "adherence to moral and ethical principles; soundness of moral character; honesty."

It's about time. http://snipurl.com/aerm5 [www_google_com] lists a number of times with "FEMA employees" are arrested for a number of charges.

It is encouraging to see FEMA address the new way of doing things, including investing in training and benefits for Disaster Assistance Employees as they "recognize how important they are."

In the area of FEMA Public Affairs, it has been observed the staff are more engaged in correcting media reports during disasters. This is important in getting the right information to the right people so they can make the right decision.

FEMA Public Affairs deserves a round of applause for reaching out to the Citizens by using Twitter (@femainfocus) to engage a Citizenry that seems to not understand the role of the Federal Government in disasters. There has even been an attempt to address the FEMA "concentration" and "death" camp issues that have moved over from USENET conspiracy folks to Twitter.

Take-aways from the conference call included Johnson comments on GAP analysis, Position of Heightened Alert (where FEMA focuses people and stuff with the events in DC being an example), CPG-1, the local government planning document, and the strength of the Regional offices.

"Career leaders are not going away," said Johnson.

Johnson was asked if FEMA has plans to address climate change said, "If it plays, it plays in Mitigation." Good words of encouragement come to the newly formed National Hazard Mitigation Association. http://nhma.info/

The one question asked of Johnson, "How do you see the relationship between Homeland Security and FEMA", produced the answer that he sees DHS and FEMA having common goals, according to Homeland Security Presendential Directive Five, of response and recovery.

According to HSPD-5, Homeland Security should "prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from terrorist attacks, major disasters, and other emergencies". It appears to very much mirror the mitigation, response, recovery, and plans that have been emergency management operatives for so many years.

In the lessons learned from Twitter, many questions were answered by Paulison. However, some questions were missed because the user failed to use #femadrp in the message.

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/media/2009/2009_01_12_twitter_event.pdf is the transcript of the Twitter event.

It is encouraging to see FEMA reaching out to local governments (not that the States have not). Events like these make local folks feel as if they really ARE valued partners in the emergency management process.

As one Tweet stated, "@kc5fm FEMA has been aggressively ramping up their social media efforts -- kudos to them!"

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dhs/fema/transition2009.pdf describes the new FEMA.

The New Boss has a new opportunity to support the New FEMA. Will he?

We can hope.